Denmark overcomes distractions to top New Zealand

Soccer Betting Lines

09/15/2007 - Wuhan, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Katrine Pedersen scored and set up a goal as Denmark, playing with its coach in the stands because of a suspension, topped New Zealand, 2-0, on Saturday.

Coach Kenneth Heiner-Moller was suspended two games by FIFA for making contact with an official after Denmark's 3-2 loss to China on Wednesday.

He'll also miss Wednesday's key Group D game against Brazil, but at least the Danes are in position to qualify for the quarterfinals following a solid game against New Zealand. Cathrine Paaske Sorensen also scored for Denmark.

Denmark has been surrounded by controversy following an allegation of spying after finding two men with video cameras hiding behind a two-way mirror prior to its game against China. FIFA quickly dismissed the allegations, saying the two men were not related to any other team.

With its first win of the tournament, Denmark took the first step to move on from the distractions and reach the next round for the first time since 1995.

Denmark dominated early, holding possession for the majority of the first 15 minutes, but couldn't create any solid chances until later in the half.

The Danes had their best chance of the first half in the 20th minute when Paaske Sorensen launched a 30-yard blast off the crossbar.

It was far from the only chance for the Danes or Paaske Sorensen, as she just missed her second goal of the tournament again in the 26th minute on a header just over the crossbar.

Denmark's last solid chance of the opening half was from career scoring leader Merete Pedersen, who didn't start against China. She had a shot deflected wide by New Zealand's defense in the 39th minute.

New Zealand goalie Jenny Bindon played well in a busy first half, making three saves and coming off her line numerous times to cut off scoring chances.

Denmark continued to test Bindon early in the second half, forcing her to make a save just seconds after the restart.

Another solid Denmark threat followed in the 55th minute when Maiken Pape sent a header high from just a few yards out.

A few minutes later in the 61st minute, Denmark finally found the target.

Pape set up the chance when she was taken down just outside the top of the box by Bindon. Katrine Pedersen lined up the free kick and her shot dipped toward the left corner, deflecting off Bindon's fingertips before going into the net.

Denmark needed just six more minutes to extend its lead off another free kick by Katrine Pedersen. Her attempt was from just outside the top left of the box but instead of a shot, she crossed to the far post to Paaske Sorensen.

Paaske Sorensen, who scored in the 87th minute of a 3-2 loss to China, had a defender on her hip but jumped to head the ball and slotted it inside the left post.

New Zealand managed just three shots, but didn't put any on goal. The club, in its first World Cup since 1991, had its lone notable moment in the 87th minute when Annalie Longo, who is just 16, became the second youngest player to ever play in the World Cup.

New Zealand plays its last game of the group stage on Wednesday against China.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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